The Factors Responsible For Nigeria’s 2nd-Highest Quarterly GDP Growth In 3 Years

Today, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the latest installment of its quarterly data on the Nigerian economy and the standout statistic is that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.28 percent (year-on-year), in real terms, in Q3 2019.

The growth of 2.28 percent, when compared to the figures from Q3 2018, represents a year-on-year point growth of 0.7 percent.

When compared to Q2 2019, which recorded a growth rate of 2.12 percent, Q3 2019 represents an increase of  0.17 percent points. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, real GDP grew by 9.23 percent.  The growth rate in Q3 2019 represents the second-highest quarterly rate recorded since 2016.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at NGN 37.8 Mn in nominal terms. This performance is higher compared to the aggregate of NGN 33.3 Mn recorded in the third quarter of 2018, representing a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.30 percent.

However, the growth rate trails the rates recorded in the third quarter of 2018 by -0.28 percent points and the rates recorded in the preceding quarter by -0.71 percent points.

Factors Responsible For Q3 2019 GDP Growth

• The Oil Sector

Nigeria recorded average daily oil production of 2.04 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q3 2019. The country hasn’t managed such numbers for over 3 years and this may have helped boost the economy.

Compared to Q3 2018, this output was 0.1 mbpd higher than the daily average production of 1.94mbpd recorded during that period. This output was also 0.02mbpd higher than the revised oil production levels in Q2 2019 which stood at 2.02 mbpd.

• The Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 1.85 percent during the third quarter. The sector was driven mainly by the ICT sector which appears to be gaining momentum with every quarter.

Other drivers were Agriculture, Mining and Quarrying, Transportation and Storage, and Manufacturing. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 90.23 percent to the nation’s GDP.

Also, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 5.98 percent in Q3 2019. Quarrying and other minerals exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 58.03 percent, followed by coal at 43.68 percent.

The agricultural sector grew by 14.88 percent in Q3 2019, showing a decline of -3.44 percent points from the same quarter of 2018.

Featured Image Courtesy: GuardianNG