For anyone who’s ever bought something online in Lagos, Nairobi or Johannesburg, chances are they didn’t reach for a credit card. They probably used a bank transfer, a mobile wallet, or some hybrid workaround that Western counterparts wouldn’t find familiar. New research by global payments player, dLocal, shows Africa is carving its own path, rather than play catch up, in the global payments race.
Across Africa’s most strategically important markets (from Nigeria to Kenya to South Africa), consumer behaviour, regulation, and infrastructure are shifting fast. And as dLocal’s latest Emerging Markets Payments Handbook shows, this change is structural.
Take Nigeria. With a population north of 230 million and a median age of 18, digital habits are scaling with speed. Mobile phones account for more than 84% of internet traffic, and while fewer than 2% of Nigerians own a credit card, local rails are making up the gap. Bank transfers, powered by NIBSS’s real-time infrastructure, now drive 20% of e-commerce payments, doubling year-on-year in 2024, dLocal finds.
In fact, 1 in 5 online transactions in Nigeria now happens through instant bank transfers. And e-wallets are taking off too; mobile wallets like OPay and Paga—once seen as fringe—now handle about 15% of online payments.
Mobile money remains steady at 15%, led by MoMo and Airtel Money, especially in areas where formal banking access remains limited. And while cash is still part of the picture, especially for rides and food deliveries, its grip is weakening—cash-on-delivery dropped by 17% last year.
“Africa is not an emerging market, it is a thriving force reshaping global commerce,” as dLocal’s regional VP Pardon Mujakachi puts it.
“With the world’s largest and youngest workforce by 2035 and digital payments outpacing cash, the continent is not following trends, it is setting them.”
In Kenya, the story is mobile-first. Credit card penetration sits at just 6.5%, yet mobile money dominates e-commerce, accounting for nearly 50% of transactions. M-PESA leads, but Airtel is making gains. In digital-first sectors like gaming and streaming, mobile money’s share soars above 80%.
The undercurrent? A generational shift. Over half of Kenya’s population is under 25. Seven in ten people who go online do so through mobile. Payments have grown out of daily necessity, not fintech hype—matatus, market stalls, school fees, and rent, all flowing through simple transfers and USSD menus.
While M-PESA still runs the show (nearly half of all online payments go through it), its dominance is starting to soften. People are turning to newer tools like PesaLink (Kenya’s version of instant bank transfers), which is projected to grow 60% by 2026 thanks to PesaLink’s real-time rails.
Meanwhile, the government is pushing for a system where payments across platforms can talk to each other. That could make things easier for users, and more competitive for providers.
In South Africa, a more traditional banking infrastructure coexists with rising alternatives. Cards still account for 64% of e-commerce, dLocal notes, but bank transfers now claim 22% driven largely by CapitecPay, which processes nearly 40% of local transfer volume. And though cash still matters in some rural areas, its e-commerce share is down to just 5%.
PayShap, the country’s instant payment network, has helped move over ZAR 19.5 B (~USD 1.03 B) through 30 million transactions in just two years, according to dLocal’s findings. Open banking discussions are gaining traction, and a national QR standard is underway. If infrastructure gaps, especially outside cities, can be addressed, the upside is significant.
Across these markets, payments are becoming hyperlocal. Not just in currency or interface, but in rhythm. Credit cards are losing ground, cash is in retreat, and a patchwork of e-wallets, bank transfers, mobile money, and local rails is rising in its place.
But fragmentation is a feature, not a bug. As Bashir Yusuf, dLocal’s Nigeria Country Manager, puts it: “This is more than a market shift, it’s a generational change.”
For global businesses hoping to ride the next wave of growth projected to come overwhelmingly from the Global South, ‘localise or be left behind’ increasingly looks the mantra.