AFEX 2024 Report Predicts a Decline in Commodity Production Levels

AFEX, a commodities player in Africa, launched its 2024 Wet Season Crop Production report at a hybrid event held at its Abuja office. This annual report provides comprehensive insights into factors influencing the commodities landscape, such as production levels, price trends, and market outlook. For the first time, AFEX’s research includes data on Kenya’s agricultural sector and Nigeria, offering a broader view of key commodities like maize, paddy rice, soybean, sesame, ginger, cocoa, and sorghum.

The report, based on data collected from over 51,000 farmers across Nigeria and Kenya, serves as a resource for stakeholders in the agricultural sector, guiding policy development and data-informed trading decisions.

Nigeria’s Agricultural Landscape: Opportunities and Challenges

The Nigeria section highlights the untapped agricultural potential hampered by high input costs, limited financing, climate challenges, and pest infestations. Despite a general decline in production, crops such as sorghum, ginger, cocoa, and sesame show upward trends, benefiting from expanded cultivation and market response efforts following last year’s price increases.

Paddy rice production, however, is projected to decline by 2.6%, reaching around 8.1 million metric tons. Contributing factors include high fertilizer costs, insecurity in major rice-producing areas, and severe flooding, which has led many farmers to switch to more cost-effective and resilient crops like sesame and sorghum. This shift is expected to impact rice’s availability and price, raising food security and affordability concerns.

Maize production in Nigeria is also set to decrease by 5.6%, mainly due to reduced cultivated land and lower fertilizer usage, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions. The report anticipates a significant increase in maize prices during the 2024/2025 season, affecting farmers and consumers.

Kenya’s Agricultural Sector: Reliance on Imports and Production Challenges

In Kenya, agriculture relies on rainfed farming, with average farm sizes of 0.2 to 3 hectares, limiting production potential. Structural challenges hinder local production, including inadequate infrastructure, post-harvest losses, and climate impacts. The country’s dependency on imports also poses risks to national food security, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

Maize production in Kenya is expected to decline by 1%, with decreased fertilizer use due to high input prices. Despite government efforts, maize prices have fallen by 29%, driven by continued imports from neighbouring countries that have offset expected yield gains, impacting local farmers’ output projections for the coming season.

Commodity Pricing Trends and Policy Implications

Price trends across Nigeria and Kenya show notable variations. In Nigeria, ginger prices are expected to increase by over 90% due to strong demand and the lasting effects of last season’s fungal attacks. The report underscores the importance of developing policies to boost agricultural productivity, improve food security, and attract investment in agro-processing and infrastructure to mitigate these challenges.

At the event, AFEX Nigeria President and CEO Akinyinka Akintunde commented, “Each year, we conduct this extensive survey with over 40,000 farmers to better understand the challenges in our agricultural sector. The findings reveal an urgent need for interventions to enhance productivity, especially for staples like maize and rice. Addressing issues such as access to quality inputs, climate resilience, and market stability can improve food security, support our farmers, and drive economic growth in Nigeria.”