8 Overrated Business Trends in Africa (That Aren’t What They Seem)

When people talk about business opportunities in Africa, the conversation often swings between extremes. On one hand, you hear about the billion-dollar potential in agriculture, logistics, and renewable energy. On the other hand, you’re bombarded with pitches that sound exciting but crumble under the weight of reality.

The truth? Africa is full of opportunity, but not all that glitters is gold. Some sectors are oversaturated, poorly structured, or running more on hype than sustainable economics. These are the businesses that attract attention, Instagram posts, or even investor money, but rarely deliver long-term value.

Being overrated doesn’t mean these sectors aren’t working. It means they’re often overpromised, overhyped, and misunderstood, especially by newcomers looking for quick wins. Let’s break down eight of the most overrated business trends on the continent today.

1. “Green” and Eco-Friendly Products

Globally, the sustainability industry is massive, valued at trillions of dollars. In Africa, however, “green” often gets reduced to a marketing label rather than a working model. Reusable packaging, eco-friendly toiletries, and sustainable fashion attract likes on Instagram and applause at startup competitions — but the math rarely adds up.

Consumers in most African markets remain highly price-conscious. A biodegradable straw or tote bag that costs three times the price of its plastic equivalent won’t fly with the majority. Meanwhile, sourcing sustainable raw materials is expensive, and production costs make scaling a nightmare. Unless a company finds a way to make sustainability as cheap and convenient as the non-green alternatives, this sector is more hype than reality.

2. Web3 Hype Machines

Blockchain, NFTs, and Web3 were supposed to “leapfrog” Africa into the future. Instead, the space has been hijacked by opportunists. Instead of building useful blockchain infrastructure, like supply chain traceability, smart contracts for land, or energy trading, many “crypto entrepreneurs” make money by teaching dubious courses, selling e-books, or promoting “investment schemes” that collapse within months.

Yes, Africa has strong crypto adoption. Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa are global leaders in peer-to-peer crypto trading. But most of that is informal remittances or speculative buying, not revolutionary decentralisation. The dream of Web3 solving Africa’s systemic problems remains distant. Right now, the Web3 space is more crowded with hype merchants than genuine builders.

3. Rental Real Estate Speculation

Property is often described as a safe bet, but in cities like Lagos, Nairobi, and Accra, the focus on luxury rentals and high-rise apartments has created an inflated bubble. Developers build houses for NGN 90 M (USD 65 K) only to rent them out at NGN 3 M (USD 2,200) per year. That’s a 30-year payback period, before accounting for repairs, inflation, and taxes.

Meanwhile, Africa as a continent faces a housing shortage between 51 to 53 million units, mostly in the low- to middle-income segment and is expected to escalate to 130 million by 2030 according to IFC. Yet developers chase the prestige of gated estates and glass towers, which often sit empty while everyday families can’t afford basic housing. This mismatch makes luxury rental property one of Africa’s most overrated business plays.

4. Forex Trading (Retail)

If you’ve spent time on WhatsApp groups or university campuses, you’ve seen the forex hype. It’s sold as a “work-from-anywhere” hustle with promises of overnight riches. The reality is brutal: over 70% of retail traders lose money according to regulated broker disclosures and European regulatory bodies like ESMA. Platforms make money on spreads and fees, not trader success.

Adding to the problem are “mentors” who earn more from selling courses and signals than from actually trading. For most young Africans chasing financial freedom through forex, the only guaranteed winners are the brokers and the coaches. It’s not a sustainable business; it’s a speculative gamble dressed as entrepreneurship.

5. Pyramid Schemes

Names like Qnet, Oriflame, and countless rebranded versions of the same model have made their rounds across Africa. They promise empowerment, independence, and quick wealth. But the reality is simple: pyramid structures reward recruitment, not product value.

Participants are told they’re building businesses, but they only make money if they convince others to sign up. Products are overpriced and often irrelevant, supplements, beauty kits, or digital courses that nobody outside the scheme actually buys. Eventually, the pyramid collapses, leaving a trail of losses. Pyramid schemes are not only overrated; they’re predatory.

6. Poultry and Fish Farming (Small-Scale)

This one stings because it looks so practical. The pitch is that “Everyone eats chicken and fish; you’ll never run out of demand.” On paper, it sounds bulletproof. In reality, small-scale farmers face disease outbreaks that wipe out entire flocks, volatile feed prices that swallow profits, and customers who bargain down to razor-thin margins.

Feed alone accounts for up to 70% of operating costs. Without scale, stable contracts, and serious biosecurity, most small-scale farms struggle to survive. Many young farmers have entered the space only to exit with heavy losses. While poultry and aquaculture are essential industries, the narrative of quick, guaranteed profits makes them dangerously overrated.

7. Social Media Influencing

The influencer economy looks glamorous: travel perks, brand deals, viral fame. But behind the filters, it’s a harsh game. Only a tiny fraction of influencers break through to real money. The market is oversaturated, and everyone is a blogger, vlogger, or “content creator.”

Even those with 50,000 followers often struggle to convert engagement into income. Brand deals are inconsistent, payments are low, and algorithms shift overnight. The African influencer market is expected to grow to USD 600 M by 2028, according to Brand Communicator. , but the majority of that revenue will go to a handful of top-tier creators. For most, it’s long hours for little return, one of the most misunderstood “businesses” today.

8. Opening Up Cinemas

At first glance, building a cinema sounds like a safe bet. Africa’s growing middle class, Nollywood’s global rise, and youthful demographics suggest a ready audience. But the economics tell a different story. Cinemas are capital-intensive, with high upfront construction costs, expensive equipment, and continuous licensing fees.

At the same time, streaming services like Netflix, Showmax, and YouTube are exploding across the continent, with over 18 million video-on-demand subscribers projected in Africa as of 2029, according to Marketing Edge. Many consumers prefer the affordability and convenience of watching movies at home. This shift has left cinemas struggling with low occupancy rates. Outside of a few premium malls in major cities, cinema operations are rarely profitable. The dream of scaling cinemas across African cities is one of the continent’s most overrated ventures.

Bonus

Logistics and Last-Mile Delivery

With e-commerce in Africa expected to hit USD 75 B by 2025, logistics looks like a goldmine. But last-mile delivery, the piece between warehouses and customers’ doors, is brutal. Poor road infrastructure, lack of formal addresses, unpredictable traffic, and theft risks make operations expensive and margins razor-thin.

Many startups burn through venture capital subsidies only to shut down when the cash runs out. Jumia’s struggles with food delivery across Africa are proof of how unsustainable the model can be. Logistics is necessary, but the way last-mile delivery is pitched as an easy win is massively overrated.

Africa doesn’t lack opportunities, but it does lack patience for fundamentals. The problem with these overrated businesses isn’t that they’re useless; it’s that they’ve been sold as shortcuts to wealth.

The real opportunities sometimes lie in solving gritty, unsexy problems: food storage, affordable housing, waste management, and reliable services. They don’t always look glamorous, but they build lasting businesses.