Prediction Markets Slowly Invade Nigeria As Finance & Gambling Intersect

Luno, the cryptocurrency platform that started out in South Africa over a decade ago, has launched a structured prediction markets product in Nigeria. The feature allows customers to bet on whether the price of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum will go up or down on any given day. Winners are paid in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the United States dollar.

The move is the latest sign that prediction markets, a type of trading once confined to specialist forums and political betting sites that allows people to stake on just about anything (from major real-world events to random niche interests), are gaining ground in the continent’s economic heavyweight.

Luno’s product, powered by a firm called Limitless, focuses purely on price movements. Users do not buy the underlying asset. They simply predict if the price will be above or below a set level when the market settles at the end of the day.

Luno Nigeria CEO Ayotunde Alabi said the company is seeing a shift in how locals want to interact with crypto. Many users already follow charts and news closely, forming strong views on where prices are headed. The new feature gives them a structured way to put those views to work.

Luno is not alone in eyeing this space. Bayse Markets, a startup previously known as Gowagr, is also active in the local prediction markets arena, looking to reprise the rise of global players like Polymarket and Kalshi, amid ongoing debate about the regulation of a fledgling industry that critics have described as gambling in finance garb.

Nigeria remains one of the world’s most active crypto markets. A PwC report released in January noted that digital assets are now a major driver of adoption in the economy, with young, tech-savvy users pushing momentum deeper. Inflation and currency instability have made alternative financial tools attractive to everyday Nigerians, not just hardcore traders.

Luno is framing the product as educational. The company plans to offer “Learn and Earn” content explaining how markets work. It has also built in safeguards. Users must move funds into a separate wallet to participate. They cannot hold both sides of the same bet. And they have to acknowledge a risk disclosure before they start.

If a prediction is wrong, the customer loses all the capital they put in. That binary outcome is what makes these products different from holding assets long term. It is also what makes them appealing in an environment where quick returns are often prioritised over steady growth.

The broader shift reflects a maturing user base. For years, crypto adoption in Nigeria was largely about buying and holding or moving money across borders. Now platforms are rolling out more sophisticated tools. Busha has expanded into lending. Roqqu launched futures trading late last year. Luno itself has been pushing into staking and tokenised US stocks.

What remains unclear is how regulators will view this new wave of products. Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission has been working to create clearer rules for digital assets. The Stakeholders in Blockchain Technology Association of Nigeria said in January that regulatory certainty and the adoption of stablecoins would be crucial for the sector in 2026.

Prediction markets, with their clear binary outcomes and daily settlements, may fit neatly into a regulated framework. Or they may attract closer scrutiny.

Luno’s launch gives thousands of Nigerian users a new way to engage with prices they already watch. And with the wave of interest in the space, activity and competition are likely to heat up.


Feature Image Credits: Cath Virginia / The Verge, Getty Images