African Crypto Exchanges Are Betting On Prediction Markets As Trading Volumes Wane
Nigerian crypto startup, Busha, went live with Signal this month, a licensed prediction market platform where users can trade on outcomes across sports, crypto, politics, culture, and economics. Luno, a UK-headquartered crypto exchange with a significant African footprint, launched its own structured Crypto Prediction Market product in Nigeria and South Africa in March, allowing users to bet on whether Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Dogecoin and XRP will finish above or below a target price within 24 hours. Both moves come as the broader crypto industry grapples with the emerging reality that prediction markets are eating into the revenue that exchanges have long derived from spot trading.
It’s the latest sign that prediction markets, a type of trading once confined to specialist forums and political betting sites that allows people to stake on just about anything (from major real-world events to random niche interests), are gaining ground in the continent’s economic heavyweights, where native prediction markets upstarts like Bayse Markets (formerly Gowagr) have also taken root.
As evidence of this emerging picture, global research firm Bernstein cut its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate for trading giant Robinhood by 49% in July, citing weaker-than-expected industry volumes in the first half of the year. At the same time, the firm projected that Robinhood would generate roughly USD 150 M in prediction market revenue in the second quarter, the first period in which that figure would surpass its crypto trading revenue. Robinhood later reported USD 156 M from event contracts against USD 100 M from crypto trading, which fell 38% year-over-year.
In keeping with the trend, Binance integrated prediction markets into its wallet in April via Predict.fun on BNB Smart Chain. Coinbase rolled out prediction markets to all U.S. customers in January through a partnership with Kalshi. Gemini and DraftKings have also moved into the space. Monthly trading volume across prediction platforms surged from under USD 100 M two years ago to more than USD 20 B. Kalshi alone generated over USD 148 B in trading volume during 2026, representing 85.5% of its lifetime volume. Polymarket’s monthly volume climbed from about USD 1.2 B in 2025 to more than USD 20 B in early 2026.
African exchanges are sensing new opportunity amid a lull in their native offerings. Crypto trading volumes have softened across the board, and prediction markets offer a new revenue stream with lower regulatory friction than traditional derivatives. Luno’s product is structured as a peer-to-peer market where users bet against each other using USDC, with the exchange earning buy and sell fees ranging from 0.03% to 3%. Busha’s Signal is licensed by the Lagos State Lottery and Gaming Authority, a regulatory pathway that avoids the uncertainty surrounding crypto spot trading in Nigeria.
“Prediction Markets are a natural evolution of how our customers already engage with cryptocurrency,” Ayotunde Alabi, Luno Nigeria country manager, noted. “Many of our customers closely follow price movements, form views on where markets are headed, and look for structured ways to act on that knowledge”.
Busha CEO Michael Adeyeri framed Signal as an extension of how sports fans already engage with the game. “Millions of sports fans already make predictions every week, who wins the league, who scores first or which team gets knocked out,” he said. “Signal gives those predictions a place to evolve in real time, creating a picture of how fans collectively see the game unfolding”.
The broader implication is that prediction markets are no longer a niche curiosity. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argue that broker-dealers, incumbent exchanges and crypto platforms are competing for a fee pool worth more than USD 70 B across prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenised equities and compute-linked contracts. The firm expects prediction market revenue to grow at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching USD 1.7 B.
The bet is that prediction markets can offset declining trading revenue for African crypto exchanges while keeping users within their ecosystems. Luno’s product is the first step in a broader derivatives strategy that includes perpetuals and futures later this year. Busha’s Signal reflects a similar ambition to expand “beyond digital asset trading into new forms of market participation,” according to the company.
Whether prediction markets will eventually overtake crypto trading as the dominant revenue driver for African exchanges remains an open question. But it is clear that as one category declines and another surges, exchanges are repositioning themselves not as crypto platforms but as broader financial marketplaces.
Feature Image Credit: Coin Bureau
