When Safaricom launched its service in Ethiopia in 2022, it was heralded as a watershed moment for one of the world’s last major closed telecoms markets. The Kenyan giant, backed by a consortium including Vodafone and Sumitomo, had broken the state-owned Ethio Telecom’s decades-long monopoly, promising to connect millions and transform the digital economy.
Three years on, the narrative has shifted from one of a market-making disruptor to that of an underdog bleeding cash and battling what it perceives as a tilted playing field. The company’s steep financial losses and operational challenges have become a warning sign for foreign investors and a live test of Ethiopia’s commitment to liberalisation.
Safaricom Ethiopia’s financial figures show that in the fiscal year 2024, it reported a loss of USD 325 M against revenue of just USD 53.6 M. These losses, more than six times its total revenue, are tied to the immense cost of its ambitious rollout. The company paid USD 1 B for its license and has invested over USD 2.2 B in building its network, often from the ground up.
A recent World Bank assessment credits Safaricom with driving dramatic change in the market. Data prices have plummeted by 70% since 2017, 4G population coverage has leapt from 6% in 2021 to 49% in early 2025, and mobile broadband users have more than doubled to 87 million. The World Bank estimates that telecoms liberalisation, spurred by Safaricom’s entry, has added roughly USD 3.1 B to Ethiopia’s GDP.
Yet, the same report highlights “structural imbalances” that threaten the sustainability of this venture. Ethio Telecom, the incumbent, still controls the backbone fibre network and most transmission towers. Safaricom has been forced to build nearly 60% of its own sites because access to shared infrastructure was either blocked or prohibitively expensive. The company pays over USD 3 M annually to lease fibre from its primary competitor.
“The result is a tilted playing field where Ethio Telecom enjoys lower costs and favourable access to critical infrastructure,” the World Bank noted, warning that without regulatory equalisation, Safaricom’s investment may remain loss-making indefinitely.
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Other alleged anti-competitive practices, as detailed by Ethiopian tech expert Asresahegn Yilma in a public analysis, include wallet interoperability restrictions, on-net price discrimination making calls from Ethio Telecom to Safaricom more expensive, and bundling services to retain users.
For Safaricom, the situation is deeply ironic. In Kenya, it built its own empire, particularly with its M-Pesa mobile money service, using tactics that critics say gave it an unfair edge. These included exclusive agent networks, on-net pricing discounts, and slow-walking interoperability for rivals. By the time regulators enforced a level playing field, M-Pesa’s dominance, with a 90.8% share as of early 2025, was unassailable.
“Now in Ethiopia, the tables have turned,” wrote Asresahegn. “Ethio Telecom and the Ethiopian government are essentially applying the same ‘delay and block’ tactics to protect Telebirr’s early dominance.” Ethio Telecom’s Telebirr had a two-year head start before M-Pesa was licensed, amassing millions of users while Safaricom navigated the regulatory process for its mobile money licence.
This historical context leads some observers to view Safaricom’s struggles with a degree of schadenfreude. Critics suggest the company is now on the receiving end of the very type of market tactics it once mastered.
The political and security landscape adds further complexity. Safaricom was forced to shut down sites in the restive Amhara region following a state of emergency. It has also faced a boycott campaign in the Oromia region over hiring practices and language use. The sudden exit of its launch CEO, Anwar Soussa, in July 2023, just weeks before M-Pesa’s debut, signalled deeper managerial challenges.
The broader concern, echoed in a Reuters report, is that Safaricom’s struggles are deterring other potential telecoms investors. Ethiopia has since suspended the process for issuing a third license after potential investors said the conditions needed improvement. Legislative changes that omitted telecoms from promised fiscal incentives, such as duty-free imports and tax exemptions, have further chilled interest.
“You can never be quite clear what it is the Ethiopian government is doing. It’s liberalising one minute and then the next minute it’s taking everything back,” said Russell Southwood, CEO of Balancing Act consultancy, summarising the investor sentiment.
Analysts reckon that the path forward for Safaricom requires endurance over speed, with a strategy built around focusing on data dominance in urban markets and layering digital services on its network, while engaging in “constructive lobbying” for fair regulation rather than seeking special privilege.
As the company navigates this thorny challenge, it is learning a hard lesson about international expansion, specifically that dominance at home hardly offers immunity abroad. In Ethiopia, the continent’s most famous telecoms disruptor is not rewriting the rules, but is struggling to compete under them.
Feature Image Credits: Reuters


