Oil At $120 Should Be A Win For Nigeria — Verto CEO Says It’s Not So Simple

There’s a troubling irony hitting Africa’s largest oil producer right now; the same Gulf crisis that has pushed global crude prices above USD 100.00, a windfall that should fill Nigeria’s coffers, is instead emptying the pockets of its citizens.

While economists calculate potential gains, workers in Lagos, Abuja and Kano are doing simpler math. Petrol now sells for between NGN 1.2 K and NGN 1.45 K per litre in many areas, up from around NGN 774.00 just weeks ago. Transport fares have quadrupled for commuters travelling from satellite towns into the capital. Some workers tell reporters they’re spending over 80% of their salaries just getting to their jobs.

“The current crisis is unprecedented in recent history,” Olowoyo Gbenga, secretary of the Nigeria Civil Service Union, said this week. “Commuting costs have quadrupled. For workers from satellite towns, it is almost impossible to reach work without spending the bulk of their salary on transport alone.”

How Oil Wealth Became a Burden

So why don’t higher oil prices mean cheaper things for Nigerians? Ola Oyetayo, CEO of Verto, a B2B fintech platform specialising in cross-border payments, FX, and multi-currency accounts, explains the contradiction in straightforward terms.

“Over the last 12 months or so, there has been a clear decoupling between global crude prices and Nigeria’s FX market,” Oyetayo tells WT.

Think of it this way: Nigeria still exports crude oil, sure. But the country also imports most of its refined petrol despite producing the raw stuff.

So when global tensions spike and oil prices jump, refined fuel costs rise immediately. Dangote Refinery has adjusted its prices multiple times within weeks, with retail petrol potentially heading toward NGN 2 K per litre if the crisis persists, according to industry warnings.

“The immediate short-term impact on higher oil prices will be an uptick in inflation due to high pump prices feeding into the food and agriculture sectors because of higher transportation costs,” Oyetayo explains.

To illustrate, farmers need diesel to move tomatoes and peppers to cities. When diesel hits NGN 1.62 K per litre, everything gets more expensive before it reaches one’s plate. The federal government acknowledged this week that the crisis is already driving up prices of fuel, diesel, cooking gas and fertiliser.

Oyetayo notes this creates a delicate balancing act. “This will be delicate to navigate, given that the current inflation trajectory is not something that the CBN and government would want to be derailed.”

The Hot Money Tightrope

Meanwhile, the naira has taken its own hit. The official rate slid from around NGN 1.36 K to NGN 1.425 K as foreign investors got jittery and pulled money out.

But Oyetayo pushes back on the idea that this signals something broken in Nigeria’s system.

“Nigeria is one of the most compelling frontier investment opportunities for emerging market-focused hedge funds at the moment, due to the ongoing strong economic recovery and strong current account surplus,” he says.

He points out that Nigeria is still attracting serious interest. Foreign inflows surged 151% to $1.6 billion in January, with most parked in fixed-income securities.

That flood of hot money had strengthened the naira and boosted external reserves to USD 50.45 B, their highest in 13 years. The Central Bank of Nigeria even had room to step back, contributing just USD 34 M to FX supply in January, down from USD 654 M in December.

But the Gulf crisis exposed the flip side. As Oyetayo puts it, Nigeria remains “exposed to hot-money flows, though, the recent outflows, he argues, were about global panic, not Nigeria specifically.

“Yes, this means Nigeria is exposed to hot-money flows, but it was one of several frontier corridors that saw outflows in the rush for hedges and safe-haven investments,” Oyetayo explains. “This is not symptomatic of any fragility in Nigeria’s FX framework.”

The Central Bank injected USD 200 M to calm things down, according to reports. And Oyetayo notes the CBN actually has room to do this now. “The CBN’s foreign reserves are as strong as ever thanks to prudent dollar purchases when NAFEM dropped well below NGN 1.4 K earlier in 2026, so there are no immediate fears of funds dwindling should the CBN look to inject more supply.”

What to Watch in the Coming Weeks

Oyetayo also flags something that may have been drowned out by the unfolding global upheavals: the March 31 bank recapitalisation deadline.

“With the global noise, attention has certainly turned away from the upcoming bank recapitalisation deadline at the end of March,” he says. “This is going to be a critical date in the diary as we may see a rush for local currency reserves from domestic banks.”

He explains the dynamic, stating that the recent rush for dollars may have actually helped local banks hold onto hard currency. But if sentiment reverses and foreign investors start buying naira assets again while banks are scrambling to meet capital requirements, “we may see some banks struggling to meet these cap requirements.”

Oyetayo doesn’t predict disaster. “This is unlikely to instill any shock in banking infrastructure, but it may incite some volatility in the coming weeks.”

For ordinary Nigerians, however, it’s a tough situation. Fuel drives transport, transport drives food prices, and both now point upward.

Oyetayo argues that a resolution in the Gulf would quickly restore foreign investor appetite and put the naira back on its appreciation track. But he’s realistic about what happens in the meantime.

“The relief on inflation concerns, combined with renewed appetite from foreign investors, will help re-establish the naira’s recent appreciation trend,” he says. But that’s a big “if” while the Gulf remains tense.

The paradox of Nigeria’s oil wealth remains evident in that when oil prices rise, the country’s accounts may look healthier on paper, but its citizens feel poorer in their wallets. And in this crisis, the distance between those two realities keeps growing.